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Research papers on Deforestation and carbon

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  1. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

    Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, et al. · 2016 · Global Environmental Change · 6,563 citations

    This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable

  2. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

    Karen C. Seto, Burak Güneralp, Lucy R. Hutyra · 2012 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 4,876 citations

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly triplin

  4. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009)

    Guido R. van der Werf, James T. Randerson, Louis Giglio, et al. · 2010 · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · 3,241 citations

    Abstract. New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997–2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimat

  5. Total carbon and nitrogen in the soils of the world

    N.H. Batjes · 1996 · European Journal of Soil Science · 3,221 citations

    Summary The soil is important in sequestering atmospheric CO 2 and in emitting trace gases (e.g. CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O) that are radiatively active and enhance the ‘greenhouse’ effect. Land use changes and predicted global warming, through their effects on net primary productivity, the plant community and soil conditions, may have important effects on the size of the organic matter pool in the soil and directly affect the atmospheric concentration of these trace gases. A discrepancy of approximately 350 × 10 15 g (or Pg) of C in two recent estimates of soil carbon reserves worldwide is evaluated using the geo‐referenced database developed for the World Inventory of Soil Emission Potentials (

  7. Global Carbon Budget 2022

    Pierre Friedlingstein, Michael O’Sullivan, Matthew W. Jones, et al. · 2022 · Earth system science data · 1,833 citations

    Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carboncycle, support the development of climate policies, and project futureclimate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies toquantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and theiruncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energystatistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change(ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use changedata and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2

  8. Estimating Global “Blue Carbon” Emissions from Conversion and Degradation of Vegetated Coastal Ecosystems

    Linwood H. Pendleton, Daniel C. Donato, Brian C. Murray, et al. · 2012 · PLoS ONE · 1,730 citations

    Recent attention has focused on the high rates of annual carbon sequestration in vegetated coastal ecosystems--marshes, mangroves, and seagrasses--that may be lost with habitat destruction ('conversion'). Relatively unappreciated, however, is that conversion of these coastal ecosystems also impacts very large pools of previously-sequestered carbon. Residing mostly in sediments, this 'blue carbon' can be released to the atmosphere when these ecosystems are converted or degraded. Here we provide the first global estimates of this impact and evaluate its economic implications. Combining the best available data on global area, land-use conversion rates, and near-surface carbon stocks in each of

  9. Impact of tropical land-use change on soil organic carbon stocks - a meta-analysis

    Axel Don, Jens Schumacher, Annette Freibauer · 2010 · Global Change Biology · 1,467 citations

    Land-use changes are the second largest source of human-induced greenhouse gas emission, mainly due to deforestation in the tropics and subtropics. CO2 emissions result from biomass and soil organic carbon (SOC) losses and may be offset with afforestation programs. However, the effect of land-use changes on SOC is poorly quantified due to insufficient data quality (only SOC concentrations and no SOC stocks, shallow sampling depth) and representativeness. In a global meta-analysis, 385 studies on land-use change in the tropics were explored to estimate the SOC stock changes for all major land-use change types. The highest SOC losses were caused by conversion of primary forest into cropland (−

  10. Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change

    R. A. Houghton, Joanna I. House, Julia Pongratz, et al. · 2012 · Biogeosciences · 1,348 citations

    Abstract. The net flux of carbon from land use and land-cover change (LULCC) accounted for 12.5% of anthropogenic carbon emissions from 1990 to 2010. This net flux is the most uncertain term in the global carbon budget, not only because of uncertainties in rates of deforestation and forestation, but also because of uncertainties in the carbon density of the lands actually undergoing change. Furthermore, there are differences in approaches used to determine the flux that introduce variability into estimates in ways that are difficult to evaluate, and not all analyses consider the same types of management activities. Thirteen recent estimates of net carbon emissions from LULCC are summarized h

  11. Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions

    Nancy L. Harris, Sandra Brown, Stephen Hagen, et al. · 2012 · Science · 748 citations

    Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their ca

  13. Dynamic impacts of energy use, agricultural land expansion, and deforestation on CO2 emissions in Malaysia

    A. Raihan, R. Begum, M. Nizam, et al. · 2022 · Environmental and Ecological Statistics · 150 citations

    This study empirically investigates the nexus among energy use, agricultural land expansion, deforestation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Malaysia. Time series data from 1990 to 2019 were utilized using the bounds testing (ARDL) approach followed by the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method. The DOLS estimate findings show that the energy usage coefficient is positive and significant with CO2 emissions, indicating a 1% increase in energy consumption is related to a 0.91% rise in CO2 emissions. In addition, the coefficient of agricultural land is positive, which indicates that agricultural land expansion by 1% is associated with an increase in CO2 emissions by 0.84% in the long

  15. Carbon dynamics and land use carbon footprints in mangrove-converted aquaculture: The case of the Mahakam Delta, Indonesia

    Virni Budi Arifantia, J. Kau, Mana, et al. · 2019 · Forest Ecology and Management · 120 citations

    Abstract Mangroves provide a number of important ecosystem services to humanity but their persistence is threatened from deforestation, conversion, and climate change. The Mahakam Delta was once among the largest mangrove forests in Southeast Asia comprising 2% of Indonesia’s total mangroves. Currently, about 62% of this extensive mangrove in the Mahakam Delta has been lost mainly due to conversion into aquaculture. To understand the impacts of mangrove conversion on carbon losses and therefore their values in climate change mitigation, we sampled 10 intact mangroves and 10 abandoned shrimp ponds to quantify: (1) the total ecosystem carbon stocks; (2) potential CO2 emissions arising from man

  18. A new estimation of carbon emissions from land use and land cover change in China over the past 300 years.

    Fan Yang, Fanneng He, Shicheng Li, et al. · 2022 · The Science of the total environment · 82 citations

    Scientific estimation of carbon emissions induced by historical land use and land cover change (LUCC) can improve the accuracy of terrestrial ecosystem carbon budget estimates and deepen understanding of the future carbon-sink potential of terrestrial ecosystems. The present study, using historical-document-based data for provincial cropland, forest, and grassland area in China, and experimental-data-based information for provincial vegetation and soil organic carbon density, re-estimates China's LUCC-induced carbon emissions for 1700-1980 using a bookkeeping model in which we updated tabulated functions for carbon losses and gains. The past 300 years have witnessed a dramatic LUCC in China.

  19. Annual emissions of carbon from land use, land-use change, and forestry from 1850 to 2020

    R. Houghton, A. Castanho · 2023 · Earth System Science Data · 65 citations

    Abstract. Estimates of the annual emissions of carbon from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are important for constructing global, regional, and national carbon budgets, which in turn help predict future rates of climate change and define potential strategies for mitigation. Here, we update a long-term (1850–2020) series of annual national carbon emissions resulting from LULUCF (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/U7GHRH, Houghton and Castanho, 2023), based largely, after 1960, on statistics of land use from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/, FAO, 2021). Those data suggest that rates of deforestation in the tropics

  23. The Net Carbon Emissions from Historic Land Use and Land Use Change

    R. Mendelsohn, B. Sohngen · 2019 · Journal of Forest Economics · 42 citations

    Deforestation from timber harvests and farmland conversions have led to 565 GtCO2 (billion tons of carbon dioxide) being emitted into the atmosphere. Taking into account natural regeneration on forestland, Houghton (2003, 2008) and Houghton et al. (2012) estimate that deforestation has caused a net loss of 484 GtCO2 since 1900 which is about one third of all manmade emissions. However, these estimates do not take into account the substantial investment into fire management, plantations, and replanting since 1950, as well as the effect of carbon fertilization on a younger forest. We compare the outcome of a deforestation scenario with subsequent forest management with what would have happened

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